Wednesday, September 16, 2015

787 deliveries in September set to slow down ahead of 3rd quarter end

787 deliveries look to slow down this month compared to the 13 airframes handed over in August.  So far in September, Boeing has delivered 3 787s and I project that there will be 7 to 8 more deliveries by month’s end.  Again the two 787-8 for Kenya Airways are sitting in storage this time in Everett to where they were recently ferried.  The windows and doors are sealed indicating a long period of storage.  It seems they won’t be going anywhere soon.  Another 787-8 for PrivatAir is also still waiting to be delivered but the reason for the delay is unknown while for Kenya Airways it’s the lack of financing to complete the purchase coupled with the closure of the Ex-Im Bank (thank you US Congress).  What is unknown is how many other future 787 deliveries may be impacted by Congress’ refusal to renew the bank’s charter and allow it to finance foreign purchases of US made products.

Notable deliveries this month include the first 787-9 to British Airways and Xiamen Airlines’ final 787-8.  United should also be receiving 2 787-9s and the recently unveiled Star Wars 787-9 for ANA will also be delivered by the end of the month.
Monthly 787 Deliveries by Model
Boeing is now just starting to deliver more 787-9s than 787-8.  In September, I expect that Boeing will deliver 6 787-9 and 4 to 5 787-8.  The 787-9 to 787-8 delivery ratio will only get larger as time wears on due to the large number of 787-8s already delivered without additional orders to increase the -8 order backlog.

Looking at future deliveries, one cannot help but notice that certain airlines will get a majority of their 787 fleet delivered in short order.  For example, British Airways will receive 16 of the 22 787-9 over the next 13 months starting this month.  American Airlines, who took it's first 787-8 in January 2015 will have 17 in its fleet by the end May 2016.  United took it's first 787-9 in September, 2014 and should have all 18 aircraft in their fleet by the end of June 2016 a period of 21 months.  Virgin Atlantic has 17 787-9 on order and has 7 in their fleet already.  They will have 13 aircraft by the end of June 2016 also a period of 21 months from the time they took first delivery.  Boeing large and important clients are taking on the new aircraft in significant quantities as they look to renew fleets, reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and supply a better product to their customers...despite 9 abreast seating.  Other airlines are in no rush, for example, Etihad has 41 787-9s on order and has taken delivery of 5 this year and will take another 5 next year.  A very slow process compared to British, American, United and Virgin.  Deliveries in 2017 will look very interesting but I can see Air France and KLM getting much of their fleets filled out during that time.

787 Full Production Table

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Boeing delivers 14 787 in August. On pace to exceed their 787 delivery guidance

Boeing is on pace to exceed their guidance of at least 120 787 deliveries in 2015.  As of the end of August, Boeing has delivered 90 787s with 14 air frames being handed over to customers in the past month.  To date, Boeing has delivered 318 787s since program deliveries began 4 years ago.

August ended with a flurry of deliveries, with 6 aircraft being delivered in a span of 3 days (the 28th to the 31st).  Counted in this total is ZB001, the first 787-9 built delivered to Air New Zealand and Thai Airways final 787-8 leased from AerCap.  Of the 14 delivered, 8 were 787-9 and 6 787-8; this marks the first time that 787-9 deliveries exceeded those of the -8.  I expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.  One aircraft, the 3rd 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines has been delivered but is not due to leave Everett until later in September.

For September, we're looking at as many as 13 deliveries and this list does not include deliveries to PrivatAir and Kenya Airways.  The aircraft deliveries to Kenya Airwyas is being held up by financing, mainly the lack of Ex-Im financing since Congress had let the Export-Import bank charter expire.  These aircraft are being stored at Everett with PrivatAir flying to Everett on Aug. 30th and the two Kenya jets flown to Everett on today, September 1st.  The two Kenya airplanes are being stored on the runway storage at Paine.  PrivatAir may be delivered soon as I was told by David Wren that Boeing ferried it to Everett so that the customer wouldn't fly it away in the middle of tropical storm Ericka.  However, the failure of Congress to renew the Export-Import bank may cost Boeing more 787 deliveries in the future.

Boeing has to deliver an average of 7.5 787 each month until the end of the year but it is still my belief that they can deliver 130 to 135.

787 Full Production Table